Latest forecasts put Typhoon #Hagupit (Ruby) on a course to hit Metro Manila over the weekend

A “very dangerous situation” is now “evolving” in the Philippines as Super Typhoon Hagupit (Tropical Cyclone 22W locally code-named “Ruby”) approaches the Philippines threatening to impact at least 30 million people according to the latest report filed about 0100H 05 Dec 2014 Philippine time…

Hagupit rapidly strengthened into a super typhoon on Wednesday afternoon and continued to strengthen through Thursday with sustained winds over 255 kph (160 mph).

This intensity is equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific Ocean.

The latest forecast issued by the United States Naval Observatory (USNO) based on a Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) report puts the projected trajectory of Hagupit on a course to hit close to Metro Manila.


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[See full US Naval Observatory weather update graphic as of 04 Dec 2014 here.]

A recent USNO analysis reports that the storm is on a West-Northwestward course with satellite imagery indicating a slight weakening trend. Hagupit is expected to first make landfall at Samar and tear through the Bicol peninsula. Beyond that, the range of possible courses remains wide putting its position further West after this at anywhere between Cagayan Valley in northern Luzon and just north of Cebu.

What were initially inconsistent forecasts coming from American and European weather modelling systems have now converged. The now largely-consistent forecasts paint an “ominous” picture according to a Weather Channel report

First, the typhoon is expected to approach the eastern shores of the central Philippines on Saturday local time. There is still some timing uncertainty, as the typhoon is expected to slow its forward motion. However, the most likely time frame for landfall appears to be Saturday evening local time (Saturday morning U.S. time).

During this initial period of contact with land, Hagupit will likely unleash its most powerful winds. It should be at least a Category 3 equivalent tropical cyclone by that time, but could easily still be a Category 4 or 5 storm. In areas where the wind blows onshore, very dangerous storm surge is likely.

As Hagupit grinds west or northwest across the Philippines, the danger will gradually transition from one of wind damage and storm surge to one of heavy rainfall.

Movement across the Philippines is expected to be “agonizingly slow” and heavy rainfall is likely as the storm weakens over the coming weekend.

Panic buying has been reported in some parts of the areas directly threatened by Hagupit as residents in these areas brace themselves for the coming devastation. Much of the areas expected to bear the full brunt of Hagupit are still reeling from the disaster unleashed by Typhoon Haiyan which hit the Philippines in November 2013…

Buyers emptied shelves in shops and queued at petrol stations in Tacloban and towns on Leyte island where Super Typhoon Haiyan struck with winds in excess of 300 km/h on November 8 last year, killing 6300 people, leaving 1000 missing and displacing 4.1 million others.

Japan’s meteorological agency predicts the new storm called Hagupit – Filipino for lash – could pack winds of up to 212 km/h when it makes landfall this weekend.

Experts say a storm of this magnitude would bring sea surges up to four metres and wreak havoc in the same areas that were devastated by Haiyan where thousands of people are still living in makeshift accommodation.

This has prompted the Philippine Government to mount efforts to calm the panic by assuring the public that a sufficient supply of basic goods will be made available. But there are also reports of “stores shutting days ahead of the typhoon in order to raise prices of goods later” prompting the government to consider “declaring a state of national calamity to freeze prices of basic goods.”

Various Philippine government disaster response and management agencies as well as the country’s armed forces are reporteldy now on “highest” alert. Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) spokesman Restituto Padilla reports that “The red alert status came into effect enabling AFP’s Central Command to work with other agencies, including the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council and Office of Civil Defence”.

32 Replies to “Latest forecasts put Typhoon #Hagupit (Ruby) on a course to hit Metro Manila over the weekend”

  1. Meanwhile, PAGASA site is still down and from what I last heard, their forecast was that the eye of the storm would pass somewhere south of Romblon, moving WNW towards Palawan. Just found out about the USNO and JTWC when someone in my social media feed pointed out that it deviated from other forecasts.

    Can’t really blame the people for panic buying though. Survival by any means has become sort of natural for them over the last few months. It would take some time for rationality to take over.

  2. This isn’t exactly the most pressing matter, but if Hagupit is already a Filipino word and is being used internationally, why do they need to give it a different ‘local’ name here? It seems like unnecessary confusion.

  3. I hope the US Navy will not help this time. How many times the USA needs so be kicked to the curb like a f***** dog in order to finally never come back. It would really be embarrassing to see the Navy helping again. Filipinos have too much pride but the Americans have nothing.

    1. Contributed goods from the last super typhoon are still rotting in warehouses. Authorities seem to lack the capacity to distribute the stuff. Trucks with provisions are still waiting in lines at ferry ports unable to reach remote islands. Survivors are still living in tents. I hope they are able to get people into churches and convention centers in time to avoid the storm surge. Would it be expecting too much from the Romualdez clan to get up off their fat asses and do the job they elected themselves to do?

  4. The international countries who responded during the events of Typhoon Haiyan last year, have said their unwillingness to provide relief, donations, and assistance to the Philippines, unless requested by their national government and sending communications to would-be assisting countries, on the proper channels, and submitting complete documentations first before response deployment.

    The international community had bitter lessons in providing disaster relief and response deployment to the Philippines, and they will only provide relief, donations, and assistance through the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Cresent, and not through the Philippine government and its agencies.

    In short, don’t expect any help from all of us in the international community anymore. You’re all on your own.

      1. @ KIMS, it is true. All of the money and relief supplies sent to the Philippines were stolen by the people that run the gov’t. of the Philippines.It is so sad but I would tell anyone who wants to send a donation, not to, but rather donate to the Red Cross. At least that way, what they donate will not be stolen.

  5. The Squatters who block the “esteros” and living along the River banks are still there.
    Aquino,Roxas, Tolentino, Metro Manila Mayors,etc… have not done anything to clear them; since Typhoon Ondoy.

    What are these people doing to prevent floods?

    They sit and wait for the flood to happen. They are incompetent, lazy and useless.

    1. It’s less that our public officials are incompetent, lazy, and useless (though there is a bit of that), and more of where the fuck are we gonna send them? You can’t exactly tell them to go fend for themselves elsewhere if “elsewhere” is somewhere inhospitable to a decent life and viable livelihood.

      Thorny issues of relocation in the Philippines due to haphazard urban planning and industrial development and the like.

      1. All the more reason to spend money on REAL development. By that I mean actual shelters for these people, but nope have to keep lining my pockets with tax money just because.

        1. You can’t fund decent shelters (or what passes for “decent” here; we don’t demand much for a home) without a steady supply of money, that money coming mainly from taxes of individual expenditures and business investments, both of which are not in abundant supply, to put it lightly.

      2. These Politicians created the problem; thru inaction or for political reasons. Now, the Squatter problem, has grown into a Giant stature…they are USELESS/INCOMPETENT to solve it…

        1. Created? CREATED? Did they bomb the fuck out of Manila during World War II? Did they personally escort truckloads of promdi migrants (then) and real estate agents hawking residential complexes of every height and description heedless of zoning ordinances and whatnot (later on) to Manila and other burgeoning urban areas?

          The worst one could blame our politicians for with regard to the squatter problem is sheer neglect of public policy pertaining to rural development, adequate public housing, etc.

    2. Thanks to our laws that favors the squatters and landless in order for them to land grab and get money from the landowners.

      You just can’t kick out squatters. You gotta have the legislative branch change the laws first before you blame the executive department. But the legislative branch has more important things to do than change these laws like being absent during hearings or throwing mud at their political opponents.

  6. Here it comes again: More dead Filipino’s, more grandstanding politicians directing traffic and worst of all, TA-DA…more begging the USA for help after the FAIL-IPPINE gov’t. does nothing to help the people who will surely die/suffer needlessly at the hands of the weather, and by proxy, the scumbags who refuse to spend a dime of public peso’s on prevention and relief efforts after the storm and instead relying on foreign handouts.

    PATHETIC, REALLY PATHETIC !it’s predictable.

    1. Government, family, and individual efforts to prepare and brace for the typhoon have been ongoing ever since Hagupit entered the PAR, if not even earlier. Of course with eastern Visayas still recovering (if “recovering” is the word) from Haiyan, post-Hagupit relief is inevitable, but say this of the folks in Samar and others: the trauma is real, and folks can learn from it.

      1. Lack of Urban Planning and lack of implementation against Squatting Laws, means these Politicians are Responsible for this Squatting Problems. What have they done for the last 30 years of Aquino era, to solve the problems? All they did was: Political Zarzuela, Steal from Pork Barrels, DAP, PDAF, Senate Blue Ribbon Kangaroo Court investigations, etc…

  7. Punyeta ka Mar Roxas. Pag inulit mo na naman yang Romualdez-Aquino logic mo sa Tacloban babatuhin ka namin ng tsinelas na may tae pag nakita ka naming pagala gala sa Leyte. Isa ka pa Dinky Soliman, andaming relief goods na nabulok dahil hindi kapartido ni Ngoyngoy sina Lucy Torres. Puro ka red highlights di mo lagyan ng passion ang pagtatrabaho mo! Tama lang na minumura kayo nina Abad ni Gloria sa cabinet sessions ninyo noon dahil mga incompetent kayo.

  8. Let’s see if your incompetent and retarded President can rat his way out if things go to shit once again like what happened in Tacloban. No doubt relief goods from other countries will be claimed by local authorities as theirs to gain trust by the people. I won’t be surprised if that Mar “pathetic excuse for a human” Roxas will once again claim that “those bodies found are different from before.” This FAIL-ipine nation deserves to get f’ked again since they voted for a retarded guy for their president.

    1. If there someone to blame in the government, these are the LGUs. Tacloban is an example of the failure of LGUS rather than the national government. A lot of LGUs were affected during that typhoon but tacloban was just totally mismanaged before, during and after the typhoon.

  9. When a life-threatening typhoon is going to hold its regular state visit in the Philippines, it’s like the world is expecting a disastrous outcome.

    When your country is the “constant” host of strong calamities, it’s like an opportunity is given to its people to be ahead and outstanding on something like being the active party on climate change or disaster preparation, being advance and most accurate in weather apparatus and forecast, being the techno-geek in renewable energy and advance technology and rescue operation.

    So here again is another problem with the Filipinos. They don’t see their burden as a means to develop their muscles. They only see it as a test of endurance.

  10. The National Government is to Blame,especially : Aquino, Binay, Roxas, all the Politicians…who are in charge in Planning in the: relief, rescue, evacuation , etc…of these calamity victims. Local governments have limited power and forces…look at the rebuilding of the destroyed infrastractures…did they finish the rebuilding, after the typhoon?

    Another Typhoon is here, again…

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