Erap and Isko, Reviving Manila (Part One)

 Manila is the core city of the National Capital Region and despite the many attempts to restore it to its “old glory”, it is still pretty much rotting away and there seems to be no way of stopping its decay.

Polluted, crowded, crime infested, unbearably hot during the summer months, chronically flooded during the rainy season, and jammed with traffic throughout the year.

Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada and Vice Mayor Isko Moreno leading Chinese New Year Eve Festivities. (Photo from Liz Villasenor, Head of the Manila City Tourism Office)

Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada and Vice Mayor Isko Moreno leading Chinese New Year Eve Festivities.
(Photo from Liz Villasenor, Head of the Manila City Tourism Office)

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Not to discount the efforts of former President now Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada and Vice Mayor Isko Moreno to spruce up the city and shake it up a bit in a good way, but I think reviving Manila will require something more substantial and strategic.

And I think they have quite a good grasp about the kinds of substantial and strategic change that needs to be implemented to get the city out of the crippling stagnation it is in.

Although discounted many times over during the span of their careers for being “artistas”, Erap and Isko have proven their capability as leaders on the local level.  This is something that, taken together the good impression I have of Batangas Governor Vilma Santos’ performance, seems to fly in the face of the knee-jerk derision that artista-politicians are subjected to — it should remind those of us who think they’ve got highly tuned, critical minds not to fall for the trap of sweeping generalizations.

Erap, for one, had the right mind about a number of things when he was President and some say he is now showing quite a bit of brilliance as mayor.  Isko on the other hand, thanks to his good use of social media and genuine action on the ground as traffic czar as well as the leader of the city council, is really revealing himself to be highly capable of running the city.

The two have scored quite a lot of “quick wins” (cleaning up a number of places in Manila, solving traffic problems, etcetera) within the first half of their first year in office together and it is easy to understand how this tactic can work towards building confidence in their administration.  The thing about quick wins, however, is that it builds up expectations and soon enough, people will begin expecting big wins.

One big win in the offing is the actual implementation of plans to revive and revitalize Manila.

I’m not talking about just the restoration of parks and preservation of historic sites (although any kind of urban revival should include this) or the installation of streetlamps and re-paving of sidewalks.  I’m talking about something more holistic that will help reduce the problems of living (and working/doing business) in Manila as well as laying the ground-work for it’s future growth — yes, you read that right.

It’s painfully obvious, and has been for the last 50 years, that there is hardly any “open space” within Manila and whatever open space there is may be something that people may want to keep open.

Vertical expansion would seem to be the right solution to creating “new space” for offices and residences, but there are some serious considerations.  One is that it will increase population density (more people living per square kilometer) and with that, you’ll have a host of issues which includes: more traffic (more people going to or from one place), higher demand for power and water as well as food which can lead to inflation, and yes, ground subsidence or the sinking of the ground, which has been cited as one of the factors contributing to flooding in Manila.

UP’s Dr. Kevin Rodolfo made a big deal about the “alarming rate” of ground subsidence in Manila last year.  But what was largely left out of his findings is the fact that it is the huge excavations for the foundations of high rise buildings that causes the rapid, massive displacement of ground water in Manila.  What Rodolfo didn’t emphasize is that water extraction by companies in Manila that market filtered and purified water may only partially account for the rapid decline of ground water — forgetting, perhaps, that Manila sources most its water needs from surface water.

There’s probably a reason for why Dr. Rodolfo’s studies were presented in the way it was and it could be that high-rise building developers want to keep that fact hush-hush — the same way that developers will want to muffle any noise about the Marikina Valley Fault.

Moreover, using up all the available open space within Manila will contribute to even more flooding as it covers up the remaining areas which may have natural sinks that either absorb surface water or contain fissures that lead to natural underground aquifers.  These natural sinks usually suck up rainwater and keep it from running above ground, thereby causing flooding in low lying areas.

The loss of these natural sinks, clogging of already inadequate flood ways, and ground subsidence coupled with the denudation of forests and development of subdivisions in the uplands north east of Manila (the Siera Madres) are the main factors that contribute to massive flooding in Manila.

Another option, and a costly one at that, is for the city to finance the renewal and revival of sections of the city — as other cities in other parts of the world have done.  I’m still researching right now about how much it will actually cost Manila’s tax payers and the city government.  Given Mayor Eraps statement at the start of his term saying that the city was hard-pressed to pay a debt of about Php 3.5 Billion, however, I’d assume that the Manila city government might not be in a good position to undertake what could be a multi-billion project.

Then again, that doesn’t mean that the private sector shouldn’t be brought in to undertake urban renewal and while it may look like a great deal (private money funding a project that will benefit the public at large), the government won’t be getting a free ride on it.

Just consider, for instance a case where the urban area to be revitalized it involves a large enough piece of land which may be inhabited by informal settlers and figure out the financial cost of relocating them — not to mention the political blow-back it will surely have.

Thing is, that’s what is already happening at Quezon City’s north triangle area and it’s a good thing that the developers (Ayala Land Inc.) have the strong backing of the Aquino Administration, otherwise leftist elements in the urban poor groups protesting the North Triangle Development might have put a stop to it.

This underscores just how crucial strong political will is when it comes to undertaking huge land development projects, especially granting that it will run against the interests of “the poor” who:

(1) comprise the larger part of the country’s voting population;

(2) and are largely the prime justification for a lot of government projects/programs which end up as milking cows for corrupt bureaucrats and politicians.

So, as far as I can see it, there may be just one last option that seems like a win-win solution and that is the reclamation of land in Manila Bay.

Compared to the options cited in the preceding paragraphs, the reclamation of land from Manila Bay presents advantages in areas where other options have problems.

The option of utilizing available open space within Manila which can:

– increase population density and strain the city’s resources even more

– contribute to more flooding by (1) plugging up natural water sinks and (2) accelerating ground subsidence by displacing more ground water by the construction of its foundations

– run into political and legal complications because of the necessity of relocating informal settlers

On the other hand, land reclamation provides the following benefits:

– expands Manila’s land area, thereby decreasing population density

– become a barrier to storm surges and keep seawater from flooding coastal areas of Manila because it will act like a dike or breakwater

– can be built without legal and political complications posed by informal settlers — at least, in the case of one proposed reclamation project

With regard to the last item, while there may be no substantial legal or political complications from informal settlers, the flak hurled at reclamation is coming from real estate owners and developers who may have substantial land holdings in Manila.

It’s easy enough to understand why when you consider that land is an economic resource.  It is generally held that its value will continue to appreciate mainly because its supply is limited while demand for it grows as population grows.  The reclamation of land poses a threat to the value of land owned by Manila real estate owners and developers because it INCREASES THE SUPPLY OF LAND, thereby potentially decreasing the demand for their properties hence perhaps lowering the lease or sale price.

While those going against reclamation of land in Manila Bay claim they are fighting for the welfare of the urban poor, for the preservation of the environment, and protection of historical heritage, it’s easy enough to find out who is backing them and it will lead you to a who’s who of huge real estate owners and property developers who are just out to protect their own interests.

(Watch out for my next post next week.)

32 Replies to “Erap and Isko, Reviving Manila (Part One)”

  1. As a person who plays simulation games like SIM City and other similar games, land expansion is a priority.If you do not have enough space, you wont be able to put upgrades.

    The lack of space deters investors. Would a Multinational company be satisfied with just a little land? Would you imagine a large company with a corporate office a size of a classroom.

    Sir Paul, What do you think of others who suggest to develop land on the provinces because there are much more space and it will decongest Manila?

    For me, I’m against developing land of the provinces it will result a major downfall, especially agriculture. More infrastructure rising up and less food being produced. We will become dependent on import.

      1. What spirit are you talking about? Do not kid yourself, pinoys do not possess any “special spirit”, it is only “grin and bear it but do nothing about it” attitude that I have been seeing for decades now.

        You idiots, better stop harping on about that idiotic pinoy spirit as it only gives a false sense of security among the filipino people.

      2. My definition of the “amazing Filipino spirit” – The ability to absorb every abuse and still the average Filipino won’t do anything about it. Because he/she is afraid of challenge/change.

        Amazing isn’t the term I would use. Pitiful is more appropriate.

    1. FYI, agriculture in the Philippines has been on the decline decades ago. The agricultural produce we are enjoying now has a large percentage of it smuggled from other countries, adding more nails to the coffin of local agribusineses. Better just replace it, it is dying anyways.

      Decentralization will work, provide more jobs in the rural areas, lessesn unemployment, lessen urban migration.

    2. If you go to the provinces like Bulacan, Rizal, Laguna, and Cavite, you’ll find that urbanization has already taken place and if you check the number of towns in those areas which have been upgraded to city level or highly urbanized city status, there will be no doubt that development has taken place.

      When I went to Tagaytay recently and took the south super highway, the places along that entire stretch that used to be either huge rice fields or salt making ponds are now subdivisions, gasoline stations, or factories.

      The same is happening in Bulacan, Rizal, and Cavite, I am told.

      So, now, perhaps, instead of our rice and other food crops coming from these nearby provinces, these are now being hauled from provinces further away from Manila and probably pass through several layers of middlemen.

      Major inputs such as fertilizer comes from Manila’s ports also now have to be transported further and perhaps also through more layers of middlemen.

      Both situations tend to add costs that increase the market price of food.

      As it was explained to me by economists and technocrats at the DTI, the high price of food eats into the meager earnings of workers in Metro Manila and pressures them to demand higher wages.

      What could solve it is either to provide a high-capacity, low cost means of transporting inputs as well as products to and from the city. Such a thing would be a high-capacity freight train, but that is no where to be seen at this point as the PNR’s rails (repaired as it is) and trains cannot carry heavy freight — like it used to. Moreover, it cannot go further than Caloocan and Bicutan (I think).

      Even more, the FTI — Food Transport Inc — Facility has been bought by Ayala Inc and will be turned into a high-scale mixed-used development like the Ayala Town Center. The FTI was envision to be a major hub for agri-industrial development (food processing) and would have enabled farmers to get better prices for their produce as well as where people from Metro Manila can source their food at much lower prices.

      On another point, it is still a reality that multinational corporations or business outsourcing firms want to be centrally located or located in a country’s capital.

      Makati used to be and still is a prime location. Ortigas has almost caught up and Taguig/BGC is not far behind.

      Manila on the other hand does not have a business/government/commercial center like the Makati, Taguig/BGC, and Ortigas.

      This has led to its stagnation. Land expansion via reclamation is something that has been done in Hongkong, Singapore, and other highly industrialized countries. It has been proven to be safe and beneficial economically.

      1. High capacity, low cost means of transport. I remember GMA’s North Railway Project. Which will expands from Manila to Clark and further up North. But it was cancelled because of alleged corruption. Roll On – Roll Off (RORO) was great, another from GMA but almost half of it ports were closed.

  2. Indeed. The Filipino spirit is strongest on the earth. That is why Satan puts so much tests and persecution upon us, because we are the chosen people!

    We must endure our trials, and we will have our special place in the heavens.

    Vote for KRiS at the next elections! The peoples choice!

    1. “PINOY PRIDE” at its worst. No doubt you’ll also say that Filipinos should rule the entire world.

      My foreigner friends are laughing at you right now for uttering such bullcrap.

      1. I don’t know you but I started laughing. But then I stopped and thought “maybe June really means it”. That isn’t funny.

        1. If you mean June shilling Kris Aquino to be the next president of this poor country ain’t funny, then it ain’t funny at all.

    2. Ian,

      If the Filipino population reaches 1 billion, we will have a shot at ruling the world. Do not worry, that number is closer than you think. Population growth is an exponential function (follows a parabolic trajectory in a graph).

      1. Unfortunately having more people in this country does not always equate to a better livelihood.

        Filipinos ruling the world: An unlikely possibility.

        I have a feeling that PP and June are the same people posting under different aliases.

      2. Actually we are not. Benign0 knows who I am and what I really stand for. I don’t know who the other guy is but I think he is thinking along the same lines.

        You should really learn to read between the lines. Filipinos have almost zero ability to detect sarcasm.

    3. Tell that to the Brazilians/Spaniards/Jews/Italians/Japanese/Russians/AMERICANS or any other countries citizens…they will al say the same thing, just like you! and it is a FANTASY!

      The measure of a countries people is impossible to gauge and even some say immeasurable and even only as strong as the weakest link….all FANTASY, unless referring to a metal chain.

      BUT, think it if you must and continue to delude yourself.
      BUT MAYBE, Wake up and see….How much money do you have in the bank?

  3. It seems like someone is positioning someone for the 2016 election. Isko Moreno has been the Vice Mayor for many years…I do not believe, he has just seen the light and become a good Vice Mayor…he is responsible for the stink and overcrowding of Manila. I still believe those “artistas” should remain in their careers. They don’t have the : education , talent and knowledge to lead the country…
    Sorry , I don’t agree..

  4. Only the godless unscrupulous betrayers of the people hate the Aquinos!

    I can see the spirit of their mother and father in Kris and Benigno.

    With them guiding our country I have great hope we can continue our beautiful lifes with content and confidence. The Aquinos family has long been a gift from God to guide us.

    Their spirit is the mother and father of the Philippines.. like their mother and father before them.

    Long live the Aquinos family and their holy wisdom!

    Despite the servants of the devil gnashing their teeth at the prospect, I believe the masa with God’s grace will make the right decision if Lady kris sacraficed herself to carry on her brothers work. I will pray every day and night to our lord with this hope in my heart, Amen

    1. @ Mashimaro:

      How can you see a spirit? Why not make these greedy Hacienda Luisita owners , Saints…make an altar in your house…pray to them…or are you seeing things?

      Kris Aquino has many husbands…different children from different husband. If your God has the grace to make decision on this immoral woman. Then, he is not a good God. He is even a stupid God, or maybe Lucifer…so much for this nonsense…I’m ready to vomit…

      1. So? A lot of people apparently like the girl, she is a talk show/game show host and while she would certainly make for a laughable President, if you are so ‘Saintly’ why don’t you run for President? and see how YOU like being judged so harshly? all this “Your God is this, if that” is a bunch of shit and you should just BIOYA.

        IF you do not know by now that the presidency of the country is just a puppet dancing on the strings of the monied elite and other, bigger, 1st world countries whims then, like the Philippines, there is no hope for you.

        What needs to happen is not pretty and I have said it before, right here in this blog….Filipino’s do not have the balls to do it. The Virtual Vigilante seems to be the only one around here that knows what needs to be done, and says it too. it is happening, right now, in Thailand, Bulgaria, Ukraine and has been accomplished in Iceland. The Philippines has a shot, but will not take it! The same shit will be going on for the next 30yrs., guaranteed.

    2. How come the Yellowtards now view the Aquinos as divine beings/saints lately? Is there a cult somewhere that worships them?

    3. Jeez, you yellow zombies are getting dumber and dumber everytime you post your propaganda crap here.
      Is that really the best that malacanang miscommunications group can hire because I’m not that impressed with their stupidity and stubborness to accept the reality that their boss in malacanang is doomed.

    4. Holy wisdom? Holy Shit, R U ON DRUGS?

      keep religion out of it, or spirituality, or whatever you want to call it BECAUSE there is nothing ‘HOLY’ about politics, it is the process by which things are decided and divided…in other words:Politics is how WHO gets WHAT is decided and HOW much of that WHAT as well. NOTHING ‘HOLY’ about it, and if looks count for anything:From the looks of what is obvious in the Fail-ippines, the few get everything and the rest get the dick in the butt.

      Your statements are idiotic.

  5. No one gives a shit about the urban poor/squatters. The reclamation project could be a good thing, but building hi-rise buildings on such unsteady land poses such a disastrous & serious problem of falling buildings that even an optimistic mind can see a major major problem occurring with avalanches of buildings falling on people.

    There are no easy answers and I would build another city 50 miles away before I tried to re-vitalize the shit-hole that was once the ‘pearl-of-the-orient’. it is beyond fixing and it would be easier and less costly to just build another city. With some real progressive ideas implemented for future expansion, a new city that could rival the worlds best could be erected in 15 years, maybe less.

  6. The only way to revive historical Manila is to either strategically destroy or burn the city to bring it back to life. It is a dead space. Save the old Intramuros, UST, Manila Hotel and Roxas Blvd and burn every thing and start from scratch. Manila is nothing but shit. The foul smell of the air when you descend from the plane is unbearable it makes you sick. The smog is just too much. Modern engineering, high tech architecture or the best urban planners in the US or Japan can’t fix it.

    1. Yes, that is correct. The place is just fucked beyond repair. Build a new city, 50 miles away…and have some one besides a Filipino politician do the urban planning for it.

  7. They should take a long hard look at Ermita and Malate. Those 2 districts alone are a disgrace. Just within the last 4 month 4 foreigners have been robbed and killed there. Right on the street. The sidewalks are filled with homeless riff-raff that wants to pickpocket whoever walks by. Those human glue sniffing rats urinate and defecate on sidewalks. The place looks like a war zone. Atienza did nothing. Lim did nothing, and now Erap seems to follow in their footsteps. It is an outrage! This is mostly the first place tourists visit. It creates a wonderful impression upon those visitors. I am disgusted. I lost all hope and think Erap is just as useless as the rest was.

  8. Wow that was unusual. I just wrote an incredibly long comment but after I clicked submit my comment didn’t appear.

    Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that over again. Anyway, just wanted to say superb blog!

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