I still don’t give that much credence to what the surveys say and so I am basing my guesses on nothing but a lot of rough figuring at this point coupled with whatever strikes me as sensible at the moment.
Regardless of what our so called “political analysts” are saying at this point, my method for guessing at who will win as President and Vice President is as good as theirs. Unless, of course, they actually have reliable data (read that as the in-house surveys conducted for candidates) to base their analysis upon, they are all basically just talking out of their hats.
The only ones with really reliable data are those in the innermost circles of candidates and like a game of poker, they’ll hold this close to their collective chests. The only reliable thing for us to judge as an indication of how they are faring at this point are certain “tells” and that could be anything to any one.
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For me, it’s basically whichever candidate’s name I hear spoken of in ordinary conversations I overhear as I go about my day in the heart of Manila.
Currently, there are only two candidates for President that are being talked about for Presidency and it’s basically Grace Poe over Jojo Binay. Then for Vice President, people are talking about Chiz Escudero over Bongbong Marcos.
I was actually surprised that people in the heart of Tamarindville (Sampaloc) aren’t talking about Duterte or Roxas and it’s strange, given their popularity on the internet.
In the Vice Presidential race, Robredo and Cayetano don’t even get a mention unless you prod people and, mind you, it takes a bit of prodding for people to get them to think about these two other candidates.
Anyways… People are figuring Grace over Jojo simply because they think that she represents unfulfilled aspirations for a government that is truly in tune and responsive to their needs. Jojo, on the other hand, is someone they figure will have to devote a lot of time trying to fend off graft and corruption cases as well as possible impeachment complaints that will detract from actual time needed to set up his administration. That is, if Jojo doesn’t got the other route and try to set up a ploy to neutralize his enemies and whoah boy, he certainly has a lot of them.
Grace, on the other hand, is someone they see as not being on either side of the full blown fight between the old oligarchy and the new oligarchy. As fellow GRP writer ChinoF had pointed out in a comment on a previous post, and what he said is really interesting:
“I’ve been told about this book, The Outsider Advantage, that says real movers and shakers of societies are usually outsiders. They are the ones who introduce new ideas because the locals often want only the status quo, and block and progress and improvement. That’s why a change to the law I want, is to remove any requirements referring to residency, blood, etc. anything “natural,” so people like OFWs can run for office here. Really, that’s what we need. Philippine society is too hung up on the obsolete concept of blood relations as something that determines loyalty.”
Viewed from another angle, I have a tendency to describe the old oligarchy vs. new oligarchy fight more like two bands of in-bred factions going at each other in a zero-sum contest where the winner thinks he can take it all and the loser won’t let it happen.
So far, just from the looks of it, Grace isn’t an integral part of that conflict even given that some people point to so-called “ties” with Danding Cojuanco.
The way the people I eavesdrop on say it, they describe Grace as someone who isn’t “subo sa sistema” or eaten by the system or whose fortunes weren’t built through decades of feeding or benefitting from favorable government action or policies.
Thing is, when was the last time we had a president who was basically an outsider in the war of Philippine oligarchs?
I may be wrong here, but the last time that happened was when good old Steady Eddie (Fidel V. Ramos) became president.
Sure, Ramos was part of the Marcos regime but he wasn’t really part of any of the existing oligarchies and that, in part, assured people of somewhat a “level” playing field.
Of course, the question right now is… Does Grace have what it takes to tame the Philippine oligarchy and at the same time serve the interests of the common Filipino?
(That’s something I’ll discuss in my next post.)