The 2025 midterm election didn’t just fill Senate seats — it redrew the political battlefield for the 2028 presidential race. Now, all signs point to a three-way battle for power:
Sara Duterte, the populist heiress with a solid southern base and strategic dynastic alliances.
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Risa Hontiveros, leading a reinvigorated opposition bloc with fellow Senators Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan.
Martin Romualdez, Speaker of the House and dynastic tactician from the Marcos camp, preparing for a technocratic power play.
This isn’t just a race — it’s a clash of political identities, regional loyalties, and contrasting visions for the Philippines.
👥 Tandem Watch: Who’s Running with Whom?
Choosing the right running mate is no longer cosmetic. It’s coalition-building. Here are the likeliest tandems:
Sara Duterte – Imee Marcos
A tactical powerhouse from Davao to Ilocos. This tandem, if managed properly, could consolidate Marcos-Duterte loyalists — though tensions are likely beneath the surface.
Sara Duterte – Rodante Marcoleta
A solid right-wing populist tandem. Marcoleta, now a senator, has broad national recall and speaks to the INC, DDS diehards, and anti-elite sentiment.
Risa Hontiveros – Bam Aquino
Reformist dream team. Charismatic, competent, clean image — with three Senate mandates between them and robust recall in youth and urban middle-class sectors.
Martin Romualdez – Erwin Tulfo
A union of machinery and media mass appeal. Tulfo provides firebrand visibility and populist clout; Romualdez supplies funding and elite networks.
🗺️ Regional Breakdown: Where the Votes Will Come From
🧭 Mindanao
Sara Duterte remains dominant. In 2025, Bong Go, Bato dela Rosa, and Marcoleta crushed the senatorial race in Mindanao.
Marcoleta as VP would reinforce her appeal to rural, pro-DDS and nationalist voters.
Hontiveros–Aquino remains limited without major LGU support.
Romualdez–Tulfo could siphon off voters, but still seen as “outsiders.”
✅ Edge: Sara – locked in unless Duterte coalition implodes.
🧭 Central Visayas
The defeat of the Garcia dynasty in Cebu is an affirmation that Cebu is a Duterte stronghold — he endorsed the winner, proving his continued influence.
Sara Duterte remains strong here.
Hontiveros–Aquino has urban potential in Dumaguete and Cebu City, the Negros Island Region and Panay.
Romualdez–Tulfo remains untested in this region.
✅ Edge: Sara – Duterte brand still commands respect, even with changing power brokers.
🧭 NCR + Lingayen-Lucena Corridor
In 2025, this was owned by Hontiveros, Aquino, and Pangilinan. The progressive bloc has solidified its presence in Metro Manila, CALABARZON, and Bulacan.
Hontiveros–Aquino is the natural favorite. Sara retains appeal among the working classes but has lost ground in the middle-class vote.
Romualdez is seen as an elite placeholder. Even Tulfo may not fully close the relatability gap.
✅ Edge: Risa – her urban bastion, vital for any 2028 victory.
🧭 Bicol Region
Still Robredo country, and in 2025 it translated into solid wins for Bam and Kiko. Hontiveros, with support from either or both, is the clear favorite here.
Sara is not so popular with Bicolanos.
Romualdez remains a non-entity.
✅ Edge: Risa – commanding lead and unlikely to be challenged.
🧭 Ilocos and Eastern Visayas
This is Romualdez territory. With Marcos family support and strong LGU ties, he dominates here.
Sara, running with Imee, will split loyalties.
Hontiveros has virtually no infrastructure in the region.
✅ Edge: Romualdez – contained but crucial.
⚔️ Scenario Showdowns: Three-Way Clashes
🔴 Sara Duterte vs Risa Hontiveros
Sara–Marcoleta brings the Vis-Min machine and conservative bloc.
Risa–Bam captures NCR, Bicol, youth, diaspora, and urban reformists.
Key swing areas: Pampanga and vote-rich CALABARZON provinces.
➡️ Competitive if turnout is high and opposition expands rural ground game.
🔴 Sara Duterte vs Martin Romualdez
Administration versus Duterte political war.
Sara–Imee consolidates anti-elitist Duterte-Marcos nostalgia.
Romualdez–Tulfo bets on media populism and elite cohesion.
➡️ Vote-splitting opens path for Risa if she consolidates early.
🔴 Risa Hontiveros vs Martin Romualdez
Risa–Bam leads in urban, academic, youth, and progressive sectors.
Romualdez–Tulfo draws rural loyalty, government-dependent communities, and machinery-backed barangays.
➡️ Risa wins with a strong ground operation in Luzon lowlands and Visayas cities.
🧠 The Final Matrix
Candidate Strengths Weaknesses Path to Victory
Sara Duterte Deep South base, rural loyalty, DDS-leaning electorate Urban rejection, dynasty fatigue, alliance risk Lock Mindanao + Visayas + North with Imee/Marcoleta
Risa Hontiveros Moral authority, youth/urban core, Senate base Weak LGU links, rural machinery gap NCR + Bicol + diaspora + expand Luzon and VisMin via Bam.
Martin Romualdez Marcos backing, elite network, financial muscle No organic base, charisma deficit Tulfo boost + Leyte/Ilocos bailiwicks + admin-funded operations
🧭 Final Take: Three Roads to Malacañang
The 2028 race will not be decided by noise or nostalgia — it will be decided by coalition-building, turnout, and ground game.
Sara Duterte, with Marcoleta or Imee, remains the front-runner in a consolidated hybrid administration bloc.
Risa Hontiveros, backed by Aquino and Pangilinan, represents the clearest reformist path — but must grow beyond the urban middle class and gain support in Visayas and Mindanao.
Martin Romualdez, with Tulfo, is a technocratic threat — not loved, but potentially effective if the field remains fractured.
This is not a rerun of 2022. It is the rematch of popularity, political personalities, regions and political dynasties.
And as the 2025 elections showed, no bloc is unbeatable — and no base is permanent.
The senatorial race is going to be interesting as well because only eight incumbents are eligible for reelection. Four seats will be open to all comers.
2025 confirmed that there is no Marcos loyalist vote anymore but there is the Ilocano vote. This wasn’t enough to carry the Alyansa candidates to victory.
The administration and the so-called genuine opposition want the impeachment to push through to stop Sara Duterte’s momentum. This is more beneficial to the Yellowidiots who gain more given the Gen Z and millennials making up forty percent of the voting population than Martin Romualdez and the administration.
However, should PRRD die in detention, the 2028 election will be a repeat of 2010. His death will carry Sara to victory.
Another interesting note is the weakness of the Partido Federal ng Pilipinas, the president’s party, which didn’t benefit from the usual mass defection from other political party’s.
The dominant political party is Lakas-CMD. If Romualdez doesn’t run, who will benefit from the Lakas machinery.
The PDP has begun organizing for 2028. It recently concluded a strategic planning session led by Paul Dominguez and Malou Tiquia.
Sara is not likely to run under PDP and Hugpong ng Pagbabago is not a nationally accredited political party. She may run under the Nacionalista Party of the Villar’s, who continue to support her and PRRD.
