Latest forecasts put Typhoon #Hagupit (Ruby) on a course to hit Metro Manila over the weekend

A “very dangerous situation” is now “evolving” in the Philippines as Super Typhoon Hagupit (Tropical Cyclone 22W locally code-named “Ruby”) approaches the Philippines threatening to impact at least 30 million people according to the latest report filed about 0100H 05 Dec 2014 Philippine time…

Hagupit rapidly strengthened into a super typhoon on Wednesday afternoon and continued to strengthen through Thursday with sustained winds over 255 kph (160 mph).

This intensity is equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific Ocean.

The latest forecast issued by the United States Naval Observatory (USNO) based on a Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) report puts the projected trajectory of Hagupit on a course to hit close to Metro Manila.


[See full US Naval Observatory weather update graphic as of 04 Dec 2014 here.]

A recent USNO analysis reports that the storm is on a West-Northwestward course with satellite imagery indicating a slight weakening trend. Hagupit is expected to first make landfall at Samar and tear through the Bicol peninsula. Beyond that, the range of possible courses remains wide putting its position further West after this at anywhere between Cagayan Valley in northern Luzon and just north of Cebu.

What were initially inconsistent forecasts coming from American and European weather modelling systems have now converged. The now largely-consistent forecasts paint an “ominous” picture according to a Weather Channel report

First, the typhoon is expected to approach the eastern shores of the central Philippines on Saturday local time. There is still some timing uncertainty, as the typhoon is expected to slow its forward motion. However, the most likely time frame for landfall appears to be Saturday evening local time (Saturday morning U.S. time).

During this initial period of contact with land, Hagupit will likely unleash its most powerful winds. It should be at least a Category 3 equivalent tropical cyclone by that time, but could easily still be a Category 4 or 5 storm. In areas where the wind blows onshore, very dangerous storm surge is likely.

As Hagupit grinds west or northwest across the Philippines, the danger will gradually transition from one of wind damage and storm surge to one of heavy rainfall.

Movement across the Philippines is expected to be “agonizingly slow” and heavy rainfall is likely as the storm weakens over the coming weekend.

Panic buying has been reported in some parts of the areas directly threatened by Hagupit as residents in these areas brace themselves for the coming devastation. Much of the areas expected to bear the full brunt of Hagupit are still reeling from the disaster unleashed by Typhoon Haiyan which hit the Philippines in November 2013…

Buyers emptied shelves in shops and queued at petrol stations in Tacloban and towns on Leyte island where Super Typhoon Haiyan struck with winds in excess of 300 km/h on November 8 last year, killing 6300 people, leaving 1000 missing and displacing 4.1 million others.

Japan’s meteorological agency predicts the new storm called Hagupit – Filipino for lash – could pack winds of up to 212 km/h when it makes landfall this weekend.

Experts say a storm of this magnitude would bring sea surges up to four metres and wreak havoc in the same areas that were devastated by Haiyan where thousands of people are still living in makeshift accommodation.

This has prompted the Philippine Government to mount efforts to calm the panic by assuring the public that a sufficient supply of basic goods will be made available. But there are also reports of “stores shutting days ahead of the typhoon in order to raise prices of goods later” prompting the government to consider “declaring a state of national calamity to freeze prices of basic goods.”

Various Philippine government disaster response and management agencies as well as the country’s armed forces are reporteldy now on “highest” alert. Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) spokesman Restituto Padilla reports that “The red alert status came into effect enabling AFP’s Central Command to work with other agencies, including the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council and Office of Civil Defence”.


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32 Comments on "Latest forecasts put Typhoon #Hagupit (Ruby) on a course to hit Metro Manila over the weekend"

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Meanwhile, PAGASA site is still down and from what I last heard, their forecast was that the eye of the storm would pass somewhere south of Romblon, moving WNW towards Palawan. Just found out about the USNO and JTWC when someone in my social media feed pointed out that it deviated from other forecasts.

Can’t really blame the people for panic buying though. Survival by any means has become sort of natural for them over the last few months. It would take some time for rationality to take over.


This isn’t exactly the most pressing matter, but if Hagupit is already a Filipino word and is being used internationally, why do they need to give it a different ‘local’ name here? It seems like unnecessary confusion.


I hope the US Navy will not help this time. How many times the USA needs so be kicked to the curb like a f***** dog in order to finally never come back. It would really be embarrassing to see the Navy helping again. Filipinos have too much pride but the Americans have nothing.

The international countries who responded during the events of Typhoon Haiyan last year, have said their unwillingness to provide relief, donations, and assistance to the Philippines, unless requested by their national government and sending communications to would-be assisting countries, on the proper channels, and submitting complete documentations first before response deployment. The international community had bitter lessons in providing disaster relief and response deployment to the Philippines, and they will only provide relief, donations, and assistance through the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Cresent, and not through the Philippine government and its agencies. In short, don’t expect any… Read more »

Why do I have this sinking feeling it’s going to end up like Haiyan 2.0?

Hyden Toro009

The Squatters who block the “esteros” and living along the River banks are still there.
Aquino,Roxas, Tolentino, Metro Manila Mayors,etc… have not done anything to clear them; since Typhoon Ondoy.

What are these people doing to prevent floods?

They sit and wait for the flood to happen. They are incompetent, lazy and useless.


Here it comes again: More dead Filipino’s, more grandstanding politicians directing traffic and worst of all, TA-DA…more begging the USA for help after the FAIL-IPPINE gov’t. does nothing to help the people who will surely die/suffer needlessly at the hands of the weather, and by proxy, the scumbags who refuse to spend a dime of public peso’s on prevention and relief efforts after the storm and instead relying on foreign handouts.

PATHETIC, REALLY PATHETIC !it’s predictable.


Punyeta ka Mar Roxas. Pag inulit mo na naman yang Romualdez-Aquino logic mo sa Tacloban babatuhin ka namin ng tsinelas na may tae pag nakita ka naming pagala gala sa Leyte. Isa ka pa Dinky Soliman, andaming relief goods na nabulok dahil hindi kapartido ni Ngoyngoy sina Lucy Torres. Puro ka red highlights di mo lagyan ng passion ang pagtatrabaho mo! Tama lang na minumura kayo nina Abad ni Gloria sa cabinet sessions ninyo noon dahil mga incompetent kayo.


Let’s see if your incompetent and retarded President can rat his way out if things go to shit once again like what happened in Tacloban. No doubt relief goods from other countries will be claimed by local authorities as theirs to gain trust by the people. I won’t be surprised if that Mar “pathetic excuse for a human” Roxas will once again claim that “those bodies found are different from before.” This FAIL-ipine nation deserves to get f’ked again since they voted for a retarded guy for their president.

When a life-threatening typhoon is going to hold its regular state visit in the Philippines, it’s like the world is expecting a disastrous outcome. When your country is the “constant” host of strong calamities, it’s like an opportunity is given to its people to be ahead and outstanding on something like being the active party on climate change or disaster preparation, being advance and most accurate in weather apparatus and forecast, being the techno-geek in renewable energy and advance technology and rescue operation. So here again is another problem with the Filipinos. They don’t see their burden as a means… Read more »
Hyden Toro56ad

The National Government is to Blame,especially : Aquino, Binay, Roxas, all the Politicians…who are in charge in Planning in the: relief, rescue, evacuation , etc…of these calamity victims. Local governments have limited power and forces…look at the rebuilding of the destroyed infrastractures…did they finish the rebuilding, after the typhoon?

Another Typhoon is here, again…